Analysing the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy through the Reed-Frost model: A methodology to delimit epidemic waves over time.

OBJECTIVES: to set out a method based on the Reed Frost model to delimit over time COVID-19 epidemic waves in Italy. DESIGN: the available national epidemic reports published by the Protezione Civile (Italian civil defence) from 24.02.2020 to 16.022022 were used to collect data on COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. Then, the Reed-Frost model was applied to develop a methodology based on the calculation of the effective contact probability, i.e., the probability of contact. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: in Italy, a daily report related to the epidemic was immediately available, including main epidemiological data (point and periodic infection prevalence, mortality, etc), which made it possible for researchers from different institutions to perform analyses about the epidemic. RESULTS: an iterative methodology was developed resulting in the identification of the start-of-wave, end-of-wave, and inter-wave periods and of the starting and ending days of the COVID-19 epidemic waves in Italy (first wave: from 26±2 February 2020 to 28±2 June 2020). CONCLUSIONS: this study led to the development of an accessible and reproducible method to determine the start-of-wave and end-of-wave dates of an epidemic, starting only from the number of cases and susceptible people. The main implications of the method mainly consist in allowing benchmarking and forecasting analyses of the epidemic trend to be carried out to support policy and decision-making processes.

Medical Residents' Behaviours toward Compulsory COVID-19 Vaccination in a Tertiary Hospital in Italy.

To maintain safety conditions in the provision of care and assistance, and to protect healthcare workers (HCWs) and patients, the Italian government required compulsory COVID-19 vaccination for HCWs, including medical residents (MRs). The aim of this study was to assess COVID-19 vaccination coverage in MRs in a large tertiary hospital in Italy, before and after the introduction of compulsory vaccination, according to demographic characteristics and specific residency. A database on COVID-19 vaccination status and infection of resident medical doctors was created. Descriptive statistics and logistic regressions were carried out on the data. A total of 1894 MRs were included in the study. Being vaccinated in the same hospital as the residency program was significantly related to the year of residency and being enrolled in a frontline residency. A significant association between compliance with the compulsory primary cycle vaccination and vaccination in the hospital residency was observed. Being enrolled in the second, third, and last years of residency, and in a frontline residency, were predictive of being vaccinated in the residency hospital. Almost 100% of the MRs participating in the study were vaccinated against COVID-19. Compulsory vaccination of HCWs, alongside greater and clearer information about the risks and benefits of vaccination, represents an important booster to ensure public health and to promote quality and safety of care.

Narrative Review of the COVID-19 Pandemic's First Two Years in Italy.

Italy was the first country in the western world to be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, arguably among the worst-affected ones, counting 12 million cases and 150 thousand deaths two years since the first case. Facing new challenges, Italy has enacted different strategies and policies to limit the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and treat those affected by COVID-19. This narrative review provided an overview of factors, measures, and actions that shaped Italy's first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic by investigating epidemiological data and using a mixed-method approach. This narrative review aimed to summarize the most relevant aspects and measures and analyze available data to provide policymakers and healthcare providers with the instruments to learn from this pandemic and improve their preparedness for future pandemic events. The first two years of the pandemic differ in that, during the first year, significant necessary changes to the way health systems were organized were implemented, increasing healthcare spending and adopting social and physical distancing measures that were stricter than the ones adopted in the second year. However, as the pandemic progressed, increased knowledge of the virus and related variants, as well as the introduction of highly effective vaccines, which were not equally available to the whole population, resulted in a stratification of COVID-19 infections and deaths based on factors such as age, vaccination status, and individual susceptibility to the virus.

Knowledge and beliefs about vaccination in pregnant women before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction Vaccine hesitancy threatens the health of populations and challenges Public Health professionals. Strategies to reduce it aim to improve people's risk perception about vaccine-preventable diseases, fill knowledge gaps about vaccines and increase trust in healthcare providers. During pregnancy, educational interventions can provide a proper knowledge about safety and efficacy of maternal and childhood vaccinations. Fighting hesitancy and clarifying doubts is fundamental during the COVID-19 pandemic, which may have affected people's knowledge and beliefs toward vaccination. This study aimed at assessing if the advent of the pandemic was associated with changes in pregnant women's knowledge and beliefs toward vaccination, and trust in healthcare services. Methods A repeated cross-sectional study was conducted through self-reported questionnaires in a Roman teaching hospital, where educational classes about vaccinations are routinely held as part of a birthing preparation course. Data were collected on a sample of pregnant women before and during the pandemic. Free-of-charge flu vaccinations were offered to all course participants and adherence to flu vaccination was assessed. Results The proportion of pregnant women reporting that vaccines have mild side effects and that are sufficiently tested increased from 78.6 to 92.0% (p = 0.001) and from 79.4 to 93.2% (p = 0.001), respectively. There was a reduction from 33.0 to 23.3% (p = 0.065) in the proportion of those declaring that healthcare workers (HCWs) give information only on the benefits and not on the risks of vaccines, and a reduction from 27.3 to 12.1% (p = 0.001) in those reporting that vaccines are an imposition and not a free choice of mothers. Trust in National Health Service (NHS) operators slightly decreased. Among participants, the monthly flu vaccination adherence ranged from 50.0% in November to 29.2% January for 2019–20 flu season, and from 56.3% in September to 14.5% in January for 2020–21 flu season, showing a higher vaccination acceptance in the earlier months of 2020-21 flu season. Conclusions The pandemic may have positively affected pregnant women's knowledge and opinions about vaccinations and trust in HCWs, despite a possible negative impact on their perceptions about NHS operators. This should inspire Public Health professionals to rethink their role as health communicators.